Today is an extra-insane rumor day. Crazy shit comes up, then gets debunked, then gets revived...only for the entire scenario to be refuted as fiction an hour later. There is no way I can keep the blog current, but I'll try to give the persistent rumors some airtime. Here's what's up...
Supposedly, we've had discussions involving Bedard (as purple stuff pointed up), Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Scott Rolen, Hank Blalock, Hiroki Kuroda, Blanton, and Miguel Tejada. It seems like the Bedard rumor is the one ramping up rather than going away.
Also, Billy Beane recently equated Joe Blanton w/ Brad Penny. Hilarious!!! Is Beane the new Scott Boras (i.e. guy who make ludacris claims about his own players, convinces nobody, and ends up looking like a foolish windbag)????
As we all know...MLBTR does this much better than us (so check them out today)
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Beane also equated Haren with Santana. I assume he is just building his guys up huge to create good trade packages.
I thought the Blanton comparison was especially weird because I thought he was the dude that died a few weeks ago. While I was looking Blanton up, I discovered that must have been someone else.
Not to be a Beane apologist, but here are some career numbers:
Penny:
ERA - 3.90
WHIP - 1.32
K/9 - 6.47
K/BB - 2.27
OPS Against - .724
Blanton:
ERA - 4.11
WHIP - 1.31
K/9 - 5.24
K/BB - 2.21
OPS Against - .722
They are similar heights and weights, and Blanton is three years younger. I'd rather have Penny, as he has had more single years that were dominant (especially last year), but Beane's comparison isn't totally screwy.
Well, Blanton and Penny ARE both pretty fat. Of course Penny is also a man's man who bangs out hot movie stars and strikes fools out with extreme prejudice. Blanton is just fat. Fuck Billy Beane and the A's. Come on, try and throw that back door slider past Gibby, I dare ya. CHAMPIONSHIP!
Doesn't Rolen have shoulder cancer or something? If he's healthy I would love to have him (sick D and big bag) but I'm not sure it is worth the risk unless he's coming cheap.
Blalock, Rowand, and Tejada deserve to be dick-slapped by that creepy dude Ramon who is in all those bangbros movies.
Actually, and I should have just included this in the above comment, Beane's comparison of Haren with Santana is crazy. Haren is good, but I always forget how ridiculous Santana is until I look it up.
Some career numbers:
Santana:
ERA - 3.22
WHIP - 1.09
K/9 - 9.50
K/BB - 3.79
OPS Against - .642
Haren
ERA - 3.82
WHIP - 1.24
K/9 - 6.98
K/BB - 3.16
OPS Against - .721
In conclusion, Johan Santana is much better at pitching than you. Even if you are Danny Haren.
Meant to say "big bat" about Rolen. His "big bag" is not important to me.
Wild stuff going on. Rumor has it both White Sox and Tigers close to deals for Miggy (Tigers would be 8 player deal w/ Miggy and Willis ending up in the D). I hope either of these go through because it means that bullshit deal with the Angels won't happen and they will be stuck with Kendrick at second and Chonch Figgins manning the hot corner.
ChiSox also making a push for Andruw Jones...allegedly.
Gammons says its a done deal. Miggy and Willis to the Tigers.
I did look at Blanton and Penny's numbers after i saw Beane make the comparison. I noticed that the career numbers were in Penny's favor...although not by as much as i expected.
However, I think the ridiculousness of the comparison lies more in that Penny has completely changed his pitching style, developed a sick splitter, and been dominant over the last 2 seasons.
Also, Penny's numbers recently don't even show how dominant he's been. Most of the runs/damage he gave up were in bunches (i.e. he gives up 1 run for 7 straight games and then gives up 7 runs in one inning).
I think Penny's numbers for the next few years will mirror his 2007 season (being that he won't forget how to throw that splitter) while Blanton's numbers are likely to continue as is.
Also...Santana is fucking ridiculous. A 1.09 career WHIP is not human!!!
http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/archives/2007/12/couple_of_thing.html
Looks like we aren't in the running for Blalock. Thank God!
Now Lando Calrisian is saying that the ChiSox are not interested in Jones because he isn't patient enough. I figure the fewer bidders the better our chances of getting him at a sub-Torri Hunter pricetag so this is good news to me.
Also looks like Boston is getting close to pulling off Santana deal. Should be interesting as far as setting the market for Bedard (although there is a lot more competition for him because of the smaller contract).
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7526956
Ken Rosenthal says we lead the chase (to the extent there is one) for Rolen. The Gay-ngels are also interested.
No word on what the offer would be though so I really don't know what to think about this one. I also don't really know the status of Rolen's injury stuff so hopefully one of you other guys can enlighten me.
Here's enlightenment...FUCK SCOTT ROLEN...fuck his stupid face.
So this is what enlightenment feels like. SWEET! I feel like the fucking Buddha himself.
I don't have a problem getting Rolen though if he is actually healthy and all we are giving up is a couple of old bologna sandwiches...and the Cards pick up some of his salary. I think he is at least a better pick-up than Tejada if both are healthy enough to stay on the field and produce.
The one thing you are missing in the Penny/Blanton comparison is that Penny is a HUGE injury risk.
Penny has pitched 190+ innings only twice in eight years.
Blanton has pitched 190+ innings twice in three years.
Also, nice spin on Penny's tendency to give up runs in bunches. Non-Dodger-fellaters would call that "inconsistency."
Still, I was also surprised with the accuracy of the comparison. My general feeling is that Blanton has pitched over his head whereas Penny has pitched about to his abilities.
But until I see the Baseball Prospectus, I can't be sure.
Article on Dodgers site says Coletti has all but ruled out trading Broxton. He seems to get just how good some of these young guys are. Hopefully other teams start to see it too and we will be able to get involved in some deals offering high end prospects (Kershaw, Laroche, etc.) rather than guys who are already awesome big leaguers.
Also don't think I mentioned that folks are reporting it is pretty much us and Seattle in the Kuroda sweepstakes (folks think they offered roughly 3/$30M). What is the Dodgers obsession with every Tojo who gets a US passport?
And apparently Jennifer Love Hewitt has spoken out against Hollywood and the rest of the media's obsession with being skinny. In response they have some lard ass bitch on the news who calls herself a "self-esteem expert" flapping her cheetoh stained gums about the issue. Here's an idea, stop eating Philly cheesesteaks for breakfast and maybe Mr. Falcon will bone you once you slim down. Now THAT is a self-esteem boost!
Bobby-
I just checked out the before season PECOTA projections on Blanton and Penny and they appear below. I thought it was kind of interesting that each guy pushed his 90% projection last season.
Penny (projected numbers for 2008-2011)
ERA: 4.44, 4.54, 4.75, 4.79
WHIP: 1.34, 1.36, 1.40, 1.38
IP: 175, 168, 148, 137
Blanton (same projections)
ERA: 4.69, 4.48, 4.51, 4.88
WHIP: 1.45, 1.39, 1.41, 1.47
IP: 151, 168, 171, 147
Again, pretty similar as before. But, I go back and forth on what I think of PECOTA. Any idea why it seems to predict such a downfall for pitchers in the 5 year forecast? I looked up some other guys and it seems to consistently predict pretty substantial drop-off. Is that just the consequence of taking 50% projections out over time?
Bobby...u can form opinions without the aid of baseball prospectus. It's a tool, not a crutch.
I understand why you call Penny "inconsistent" and it's probably right to an extent. But given that a pitchers ERA over the course of say 10 games is 3.2...I would rather he be lights out for 9 games and then get shelled in the 10th game. This will give the team an excellent chance to win 90% of that pitcher's starts. I'll take that anyday!!!
That seemed to be Penny's MO last season. I'll take it again in 2009, but such a scenario might easily just be chance.
I am not totally sold on PECOTA either, to be honest. I usually look at PECOTA as a baseline - i.e., the player will do at least this well.
I think PECOTA is only really valuable for one year out anyway, and it's like you said - because you are taking the same projections out over time.
If the player's baseline is his current PECOTA projections, and he does in fact outperform that baseline (as many do), then his PECOTA the next year will be better, not worse. That's why I wouldn't put too much stock in PECOTA past one year.
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